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North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils prediction

College football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 3:30 PM ET · Wallace Wade Stadium · ESPN2

Mel’s pick

Duke Blue Devils win 62% of the time in Mel’s Playbook’s default simulation of this game.

Records: North Carolina Tar Heels 3-2, Duke Blue Devils 4-1. Based on this season’s stats, injuries, rest, travel and the betting market. Updated Oct 17, 9:12 AM ET.

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Mel’s Playbook Pro shows the projected score, the range of likely totals and margins, player props, where the model disagrees with the line, and lets you tune the model (home field, injuries, momentum and more) and re-run the game.

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Every default-model prediction is graded against the final score on our public results page. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and this is not betting advice. 21+ where applicable; if gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.