Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers prediction

Result

Final: Duke Blue Devils 19, Virginia Cavaliers 16 (Duke Blue Devils won). Mel’s pick (Virginia Cavaliers win 56% of the time) was wrong.

Mel’s pick

Virginia Cavaliers win 56% of the time in Mel’s Playbook’s default simulation of this game, saved before it started.

• Duke Blue Devils: 44%
• Virginia Cavaliers: 56%

Projected score

Duke Blue Devils 24, Virginia Cavaliers 25. 30% of the simulations finished as one-score games.

Mel vs the betting line

Mel’s margin (Virginia Cavaliers by about 1.7) is close to the line (Virginia Cavaliers −2.5), so there’s no real lean against the spread.

The total is 47.5; Mel’s projected 48.6 is right around it.

Recent form

Duke Blue Devils (4-2) scored 34.6 and allowed 18.6 points a game over their last 5.

Virginia Cavaliers (4-3) scored 23.4 and allowed 25.4 points a game over their last 5.

Based on this season’s stats, injuries, rest, travel and the betting market. Updated Oct 23, 5:28 PM ET.

See the full simulation

Mel’s Playbook Pro shows the range of likely totals and margins, player props and every factor behind the pick, and lets you tune the model (home field, injuries, momentum and more) and re-run the game.

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Every default-model prediction is saved before the game and graded against the final score on our public results page. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and this is not betting advice. 21+ where applicable; if gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.