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Georgia State Panthers vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction

College football · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Centennial Bank Stadium · ESPN+

Result

Final: Georgia State Panthers 32, Arkansas State Red Wolves 38 (Arkansas State Red Wolves won). Mel’s pick (Georgia State Panthers win 58% of the time) was wrong.

Mel’s pick

Georgia State Panthers win 58% of the time in Mel’s Playbook’s default simulation of this game, saved before it started.

Projected score

Georgia State Panthers 32, Arkansas State Red Wolves 28. 29% of the simulations finished as one-score games.

Mel vs the betting line

Mel’s margin (Georgia State Panthers by about 3.2) is close to the line (Georgia State Panthers −2.5), so there’s no real lean against the spread.

The total is 58.5; Mel’s projected 59.9 is right around it.

Recent form

Georgia State Panthers (4-2) scored 32 and allowed 26.8 points a game over their last 5.

Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-4) scored 23.2 and allowed 27.4 points a game over their last 5.

Based on this season’s stats, injuries, rest, travel and the betting market. Updated Oct 24, 5:28 PM ET.

See the full simulation

Mel’s Playbook Pro shows the range of likely totals and margins, player props and every factor behind the pick, and lets you tune the model (home field, injuries, momentum and more) and re-run the game.

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Every default-model prediction is saved before the game and graded against the final score on our public results page. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and this is not betting advice. 21+ where applicable; if gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.