Manchester City vs Aston Villa prediction

Result

Final: Manchester City 1, Aston Villa 2 (Aston Villa won). Mel’s pick (Aston Villa win 39% of the time) was right. On the total, Mel’s lean was right.

Mel’s pick

Aston Villa win 39% of the time in Mel’s Playbook’s default simulation of this game, saved before it started.

• Manchester City: 37%
• Draw: 24%
• Aston Villa: 39%

Projected score

Manchester City 1, Aston Villa 2 expected goals.

Mel vs the betting line

The total is 3.5; Mel projects 3.1 goals, a lean to the under.

Recent form

Manchester City (7-0-0) scored 2.6 and allowed 1 goals a game over their last 5.

Aston Villa (2-2-3) scored 1.4 and allowed 1.4 goals a game over their last 5.

Based on this season’s stats, injuries, rest, travel, weather and the betting market. Updated Oct 24, 4:07 AM ET.

See the full simulation

Mel’s Playbook Pro shows the range of likely totals and margins, player props and every factor behind the pick, and lets you tune the model (home field, injuries, momentum and more) and re-run the game.

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Every default-model prediction is saved before the game and graded against the final score on our public results page. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and this is not betting advice. 21+ where applicable; if gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.