Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction

Result

Final: Denver Nuggets 84, Oklahoma City Thunder 96 (Oklahoma City Thunder won). Mel’s pick (Oklahoma City Thunder win 72% of the time) was right. Against the spread, Mel’s lean was right. On the total, Mel’s lean was right.

Mel’s pick

Oklahoma City Thunder win 72% of the time in Mel’s Playbook’s default simulation of this game, saved before it started.

• Denver Nuggets: 28%
• Oklahoma City Thunder: 72%

Projected score

Denver Nuggets 105, Oklahoma City Thunder 124. 3% of the simulations finished as one-score games.

Mel vs the betting line

Vegas has Oklahoma City Thunder −9.5. Mel projects Oklahoma City Thunder by 19.4, so the simulation leans Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 against the spread.

The total is 236.5; Mel projects 229 points, a lean to the under.

Recent form

Denver Nuggets (0-0) scored 115.6 and allowed 114.2 points a game over their last 5.

Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0) scored 111 and allowed 114.6 points a game over their last 5.

Based on this season’s stats, injuries, rest, travel and the betting market. Updated Oct 22, 9:11 AM ET.

See the full simulation

Mel’s Playbook Pro shows the range of likely totals and margins, player props and every factor behind the pick, and lets you tune the model (home field, injuries, momentum and more) and re-run the game.

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Every default-model prediction is saved before the game and graded against the final score on our public results page. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and this is not betting advice. 21+ where applicable; if gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.