Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat prediction

Result

Final: Dallas Mavericks 113, Miami Heat 109 (Dallas Mavericks won). Mel’s pick (Miami Heat win 55% of the time) was wrong. Against the spread, Mel’s lean was right. On the total, Mel’s lean was right.

Mel’s pick

Miami Heat win 55% of the time in Mel’s Playbook’s default simulation of this game, saved before it started.

• Dallas Mavericks: 45%
• Miami Heat: 55%

Projected score

Dallas Mavericks 115, Miami Heat 119. 6% of the simulations finished as one-score games.

Mel vs the betting line

Vegas has Miami Heat −8.5. Mel projects Miami Heat by 4.2, so the simulation leans Dallas Mavericks +8.5 against the spread.

The total is 239.5; Mel projects 233.6 points, a lean to the under.

Recent form

Dallas Mavericks (1-2) scored 109 and allowed 118.2 points a game over their last 5.

Miami Heat (0-3) scored 117.2 and allowed 127.6 points a game over their last 5.

Based on this season’s stats, injuries, rest, travel and the betting market. Updated Oct 26, 9:13 AM ET.

See the full simulation

Mel’s Playbook Pro shows the range of likely totals and margins, player props and every factor behind the pick, and lets you tune the model (home field, injuries, momentum and more) and re-run the game.

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Every default-model prediction is saved before the game and graded against the final score on our public results page. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and this is not betting advice. 21+ where applicable; if gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.