Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction

Result

Final: Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Houston Texans won). Mel’s pick (Jacksonville Jaguars win 69% of the time) was wrong. Against the spread, Mel’s lean was wrong.

Mel’s pick

Jacksonville Jaguars win 69% of the time in Mel’s Playbook’s default simulation of this game, saved before it started.

• Houston Texans: 31%
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 69%

Projected score

Houston Texans 19, Jacksonville Jaguars 25. 19% of the simulations finished as one-score games.

Mel vs the betting line

Vegas has Jacksonville Jaguars −2.5. Mel projects Jacksonville Jaguars by 5.6, so the simulation leans Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 against the spread.

The total is 42.5; Mel’s projected 43.8 is right around it.

Recent form

Houston Texans (1-4) scored 22 and allowed 22.4 points a game over their last 5.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1) scored 24.6 and allowed 14 points a game over their last 5.

Based on this season’s stats, injuries, rest, travel, weather and the betting market. Updated Oct 18, 9:02 AM ET.

See the full simulation

Mel’s Playbook Pro shows the range of likely totals and margins, player props and every factor behind the pick, and lets you tune the model (home field, injuries, momentum and more) and re-run the game.

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Every default-model prediction is saved before the game and graded against the final score on our public results page. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and this is not betting advice. 21+ where applicable; if gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.