New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears prediction

Result

Final: New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30 (Chicago Bears won). Mel’s pick (Chicago Bears win 55% of the time) was right. Against the spread, Mel’s lean was wrong. On the total, Mel’s lean was wrong.

Mel’s pick

Chicago Bears win 55% of the time in Mel’s Playbook’s default simulation of this game, saved before it started.

• New England Patriots: 45%
• Chicago Bears: 55%

Projected score

New England Patriots 23, Chicago Bears 25. 22% of the simulations finished as one-score games.

Mel vs the betting line

Vegas has Chicago Bears −3. Mel projects Chicago Bears by 1.4, so the simulation leans New England Patriots +3 against the spread.

The total is 50.5; Mel projects 48.3 points, a lean to the under.

Recent form

New England Patriots (4-2) scored 25.2 and allowed 20 points a game over their last 5.

Chicago Bears (4-2) scored 18.2 and allowed 16.4 points a game over their last 5.

Based on this season’s stats, injuries, rest, travel, weather and the betting market. Updated Oct 22, 6:38 PM ET.

See the full simulation

Mel’s Playbook Pro shows the range of likely totals and margins, player props and every factor behind the pick, and lets you tune the model (home field, injuries, momentum and more) and re-run the game.

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Every default-model prediction is saved before the game and graded against the final score on our public results page. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and this is not betting advice. 21+ where applicable; if gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.