Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos prediction
NFL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High · CBS
Mel’s pick
Kansas City Chiefs win 53% of the time in Mel’s Playbook’s default simulation of this game.
- Kansas City Chiefs: 53%
- Denver Broncos: 47%
Projected score
Kansas City Chiefs 24, Denver Broncos 21. 22% of the simulations finished as one-score games.
Mel vs the betting line
Vegas has Kansas City Chiefs −1.5. Mel projects Kansas City Chiefs by 3.6, so the simulation leans Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 against the spread.
The total is 41.5; Mel projects 44.9 points, a lean to the over.
Recent form
Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) scored 22.4 and allowed 18.6 points a game over their last 5.
Denver Broncos (5-2) scored 22.8 and allowed 19.4 points a game over their last 5.
Who’s out
- Denver Broncos: Jaylen Waddle (WR) – Questionable, Zach Allen (LDE) – Questionable
Based on this season’s stats, injuries, rest, travel, weather and the betting market. Updated Nov 1, 2:45 PM ET.
See the full simulation
Mel’s Playbook Pro shows the range of likely totals and margins, player props and every factor behind the pick, and lets you tune the model (home field, injuries, momentum and more) and re-run the game.
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Every default-model prediction is saved before the game and graded against the final score on our public results page. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and this is not betting advice. 21+ where applicable; if gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.